The Champions League quarterfinal tie between Barcelona and Juventus is a marquee one, but one that looks a bit less likely to be a controlled tactical battle than in past years. Juve’s style has changed a bit with Gonzalo Higuain entering, while some of their key defenders battle the injuries that come with aging. Meanwhile, Barcelona just won an 11-goal back-and-forth battle with Paris Saint-Germain.
So if you’re thinking this will be a tie where Barca keeps possession, Juve defends well, and there are only a couple of goals scored, think again. Both of these teams might be a little bit better at winning a shootout than a chess match these days.
Juventus
Despite some minor stumbles, things are going well for Juventus this season. They dropped points against Sevilla and Lyon in group stage play but still won their Champions League group without much of a problem. They went on to beat FC Porto comfortably as well during the Round of 16. In Serie A, they’re on top of the table, though their eight-point lead is an average one by their standards.
It’s fair to say that while they’ve turned in good performances against good teams, the Bianconeri have yet to be truly challenged this season. The likes of Roma, Napoli, Sevilla, and Porto can catch out the world’s top teams on a good day, but they’re not among the world’s elite. This tie will tell us if Juve are in their league or in the top tier of teams along with Barca, their quarterfinal opponents.
Key player: Leonardo Bonucci
With Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli regularly struggling for fitness, Leo Bonucci’s role has become even more important this season. He’s been the key to Juve’s defense for years, he was the best defender at Euro 2016, and he’s carried that form into this season. If anyone’s capable of frustrating Barca’s front three, it’s him.
Barcelona
It’s anyone’s guess what kind of season Barcelona will have had when it’s all said and done. There’s no question that they have the talent to challenge for this title. They have the talent to challenge for a treble. But can they get results consistently?
If the Blaugrana stumble out of the blocks against Juve, they can’t count on a performance like they had against PSG — they came back from four goals down after the first leg and three goals down after 177 minutes. We may never see anything like that ever again.
That kind of burst is what Barca is capable of when they’re at their best. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled to find that level consistently, and have dropped points in nine of their 27 La Liga games. That’s a perfectly normal number for most eventual league champions, but an abnormally high one for the Blaugrana.
Key player: Neymar
Lionel Messi seems to have settled into a consistently great, but not mind-blowing portion of his career. He’s still the best attacker on earth, but he doesn’t have the same kind of unprecedented bursts of dominance as he did when he was younger. One of his partners, Luis Suarez, is a consistent scorer. The wild card is Neymar, who has gone missing for three or four games at a time, then turned up with legendary performances where he does things that Messi and Suarez would struggle to match on their best day. He’s the key player for that reason: Which Neymar shows up?
Prediction
This is a difficult tie to pick, given that Barca’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster. If they’re at their best, Juve can’t touch them. If they’re a hair off the pace, Juve can smash them. I’ll say Barcelona by one goal, but I’m hardly confident about it.
SB NATION
