As we enter the home straight of the Premier League season, with 10 games remaining for most top-flight clubs, the race to qualify for the Champions League is arguably the widest in recent memory.
Manchester City’s two-year ban from European competitions means that, as it stands, fifth place will be enough for a seat at the top table of European football.
But competition is fierce. Current fifth-place incumbents Manchester United lead a pack of seven teams separated by five points. Chelsea are only three points ahead in fourth.
City have launched an appeal against Uefa’s ban but a decision only likely to come from the Court of Arbitration for Sport in the summer. If City’s appeal is successful, fifth-place will only be enough for the Europa League.
But until that decision arrives, every team in contention for European football must factor City’s ban into their thinking over the next weeks and months. A back door route to the biggest stage of all is open, for now.
And by calculating the average home and away points-per-game of every Premier League side, we can weigh up the difficulty of each contender’s run-in.
Leicester City
Remaining fixtures
14/03 Watford (A)
06/04 Everton (A)
11/04 Crystal Palace (H)
18/04 Arsenal (A)
25/04 Bournemouth (A)
02/05 Sheffield United (H)
09/05 Tottenham (A)
17/05 Manchester United (H)
TBC Brighton (H)
Current position: 3rd
Points: 50
Average home/away points of opponents: 1.37
Despite losing six of their last 11 league games, Leicester remain well-placed. Their cushion over fifth – and sixth – has slowly whittled away but still stands at eight points. There is no reason to be nervous, provided Brendan Rodgers can pick up a few wins down the stretch.
Victories over relegation-threatened Aston Villa, Watford and Brighton in their next three would go a long way to assuring Leicester of a spot in next season’s group stages. The trips to Goodison, the Emirates and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium which follow could be tricky.
And if Rodgers has still not arrested their slide by the time of the final weekend, their fate could be decided against Manchester United at the King Power. It is not the only last day shoot-out that could be on the cards.
Chelsea
Remaining fixtures
14/03 Aston Villa (A)
05/04 West Ham (A)
12/04 Watford (H)
18/04 Crystal Palace (A)
26/04 Sheffield United (A)
02/05 Norwich (H)
09/05 Liverpool (A)
17/05 Wolves (H)
TBC Manchester City (H)
Current position: 4th
Points: 48
Average home/away points of opponents: 1.43
Back at the start of December, Chelsea were six points clear of fifth-place. Frank Lampard’s side have won just six of their 15 league games since, and yet that lead over fifth has only been halved to three points.
That says everything about the standard of this European race and Chelsea’s own inconsistency. There is anxiety at Stamford Bridge that a Champions League place could slip out of their grasp, even after the news of City’s ban.
Lampard’s run-in is relatively difficult. Late-season meetings with City and Liverpool are not ideal, nor is a trip to Bramall Lane, but he will hope to take enough points against relegation battlers to avoid needing three points at home to Wolves on the final day.
Manchester United
Remaining fixtures
15/03 Tottenham (A)
04/04 Brighton (A)
11/04 Bournemouth (H)
19/04 Aston Villa (A)
25/04 Southampton (H)
02/05 Crystal Palace (A)
09/05 West Ham (H)
17/05 Leicester (A)
TBC Sheffield United (H)
Current position: 5th
Points: 42
Average home/away points of opponents: 1.36
United’s impressive derby win was a huge boost to their hopes of finishing in the Champions League places but beating the likes of City has not been Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s biggest problem this season.
A six-game run against bottom-half opponents somewhat unpredictable. Five of those six teams have already taken points off United this season. Sheffield United will fancy their chances of an upset at Old Trafford too.
How Solskjaer’s side performs during that run will dictate whether they travel to the King Power on the final day of the season confident of Tuesday and Wednesday night European football or needing a season-defining result.
Wolves
Remaining fixtures
15/03 West Ham (A)
21/03 Bournemouth (H)
04/04 Aston Villa (A)
13/04 Arsenal (H)
19/04 Sheffield United (A)
25/04 Everton (H)
02/05 Burnley (A)
Mark Critchley, The Independent
