Summer Lin
At least 52 million Americans have voted so far for the upcoming general election — and Democrats in particular are turning out in droves, according to Michael McDonald, who tracks voting for his site U.S. Elections Project.
“It’s crazy,” said McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist, according to The Associated Press. His analysis shows about 10 times as many people voted already compared to the same time period in 2016.
“We can be certain this will be a high-turnout election,” McDonald said.
As of Oct. 23, more than 52 million people have already voted nationwide, including more than 36 million who voted by mail and more than 16 million who voted in-person, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
Some western states have conducted their elections by mail in the past, but mail-in voting has been expanded this year more than ever during the coronavirus pandemic.
Across the U.S., more than 11.9 million Democrats have voted, accounting for 50.3% of vote where the U.S. Elections Project can identify a voter’s political party. More than 6.4 million Republicans, 5 million people who aren’t registered with a party and 141,000 people registered to a third party have voted.
Many states are not reporting party registration statistics when it comes to ballots, accounting for the discrepancy between the total 52 million votes cast so far and the U.S. Elections Project’s breakdown of votes by political party.
But the Democratic advantage in early votes doesn’t necessarily forecast the result of the race between President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden, because both sides expect Republicans to turn out in droves in-person on Nov. 3.
“It’s a warning flare,” Republican strategist Scott Reed said, according to Politico. “Some Republicans are stuck in a model that we always run up the score on Election Day to make up the difference. I think running an election in a superpolarized electorate, you want to win early voting. Let’s go. Let’s stop talking and making excuses.”
“Democrats are enthused, that’s clear,” said CEO Josh Mendelsohn of Hawkfish, a Democratic research firm, according to Politico.
“I find that folks want these models to be forecasts, and they want the forecasts to be like a hurricane forecast and just to be perfect. And it’s not, because it is like hurricanes, you’ve got a whole bunch of model tracks, of which some are more reliable than others in certain circumstances.”
Here’s how the early vote numbers break down by political party in key battleground states, as of Oct. 23.
Arizona
At least 1.1 million people have already voted, according to the U.S. Elections Project, citing state and county election offices.
Trump won Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2016, beating then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by more than 91,000 votes, or 3.5%.
The site doesn’t list the party breakdown for ballots already cast statewide, but through Oct. 19, around 281,000 Democrats voted compared to 218,000 Republicans in Maricopa County, one of the state’s most populous counties, according to AZCentral. Another 150,000 non-affiliated voters have also already sent in their ballots in the county.
“Historically, it has been just the opposite,” said Republican pollster Chuck Coughlin, president of High Ground, a lobbying and political consulting firm, according to the publication. “Historically, it has been: Republicans return early and Democrats return later.”
The analysis from Hawkfish gives Democrats a 16 percentage point advantage in early votes, Politico reported.
Florida
More than 4.7 million people have voted early in Florida, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
At least 1.6 million Republicans and at least 2.1 million Democrats have already voted. Democrats comprise 44.2% and Republicans 35.3% of the total vote. More than 921,000 people not registered with a party have voted early.
There’s a discrepancy in how people are choosing to vote early, however. Republicans lead in-person early voting by around 140,000 votes; Democrats lead mail-in voting by about 570,000, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
Trump won Florida’s 29 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 112,000 votes, or 1.2%.
Michigan
At least 1.9 million people have already voted in Michigan, the U.S. Elections Project states.
The U.S. Elections Project didn’t track the breakdown by party but pollsters say the state’s most Democratic counties have returned the most ballots so far.
Republican pollster Steve Mitchell said 70% of voters who turned in ballots said they’re voting for Biden, Bridge Michigan reported. People planning to vote in-person on Nov. 3 favor Trump 55% compared to 33% who favor Biden, Mitchell said.
Hawkfish analysis gives Democrats a 24 percentage point advantage in early votes so far in The Wolverine State.
Trump won Michigan’s 16 electoral votes in 2016, narrowly beating Clinton by more than 10,700 votes, or .3%.
North Carolina
More than 2.6 million people have voted early in North Carolina, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
Trump won North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes in 2016 and received about 173,000 more votes than Clinton, or 3.6%.
At least 1.1 million Democrats and 784,000 Republicans have already voted. More than 777,000 people with no party affiliation and 10,600 registered with third parties cast their ballots as well.
Pennsylvania
At least 1.4 million people have already cast their ballots in Pennsylvania.
More than 1 million Democrats have already voted, accounting for 70.6% of early voting so far compared to more than 295,000 Republicans who have voted early. At least 125,000 people not registered with a party and 9,000 third-party voters have turned in ballots.
Trump won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 44,000 votes, or .7%.
Texas
More than 6.3 million people have voted early in Texas.
As of Oct. 21, voters with a Republican voting history cast 31.2% of early votes in the state compared to Democrats with 27.5%, according to an analysis by consultant Derek Ryan. Another 37% of early votes were cast by people who have either only voted in the general election or never voted before.
Trump won Texas’ 38 electoral votes in 2016, surpassing Clinton by more than 807,000 votes, or 8.9%.
Wisconsin
At least 1.2 million people have already cast their ballots in Wisconsin.
Democrats are up by 22 points in early voting in Wisconsin compared to Republicans, Politico reported, citing an analysis from Hawkfish.
Trump won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes in 2016, beating Clinton by more than 22,000 votes, or .7%.
Miami Herald
