The Central Bank of Nigeria hold its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 14 percent at its January 2017 meeting, saying the economy remains in recession and inflationary pressures have yet to recede. Policymakers expect the GDP to come back to growth in 2017, boosted by agriculture after the expansion of the Anchor Borrower Program while price pressures are expected to ease and the currency to stabilise.
Excerpts from the Statement by the Central Bank of Nigeria:
Conscious of the prevailing market sentiments in favour of a rate cut, the Committee reasoned that most of its decisions in 2016 were informed by the need to address the delicate balance between price stability and growth. Noting that the pressures on consumer prices were yet to abate and even as the economy continued to be in recession despite the intervention support by the Central Bank, the Committee stressed that it was not oblivious of the full ramifications of the economic challenges facing the country. The MPC was concerned that the current situation was not amenable to simplistic analyses and quick fixes such as have found expression and increased attention at different fora and the media. The domestic economic challenges which include a chronically import dependent consumption culture, lack of competitiveness of many sectors of the economy and yawning infrastructural gap, have combined with an unfavorable external environment to complicate the macroeconomic policy environment. The Monetary Authority had on many occasions, and to the extent feasible, taken extra-ordinary steps to support other policies as well as compensate for aspects of structural gaps in the economy even at the expense of its core mandate.
The Committee specifically noted the positive contribution of agriculture to GDP in the third quarter, mostly attributable to the Bank’s interventions in the sector. The Committee hopes that given the thrust of the 2017 budget and accompanying sectoral policies, output growth should resume in the short to medium term. The MPC, therefore, lends its voice to efforts for an early finalization of the 2017 Federal Budget by the authorities concerned, and the resolve to pursue a non-oil driven economy, as these will go a long way in stimulating aggregate demand and restoring confidence in the economy. The Committee also urged the authorities to seriously consider using the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model in its infrastructure development programme as a means of cushioning any possible shocks to budgeted revenue.
The Committee further noted that inflationary pressures would begin to subside as non-oil output recovers and the naira exchange rate stabilizes. Until then, it stressed, a rate cut would worsen the inflationary conditions and undermine the current outlook for stability in the foreign exchange market. The Committee also feels that doing so would further aggravate demand pressures while undermining existing income levels in the face of the already expansionary monetary policy and increasing inflationary pressure which will make the economy unattractive for foreign and domestic investment. Given these limitations, the Committee was reluctant to lower the policy rate on this occasion but remained committed to doing so when the conditions permit( Trading economics)
