The extent to which Donald Trump’s candidacy is throwing political norms out of whack can be summed up in one word: Mississippi.
- The Magnolia State probably won’t back Hillary Clinton this year, but the idea it could go Democratic for the first time since 1976 isn’t entirely outlandish as nearby Georgia—and, to a lesser extent, South Carol
ina—show signs of turning blue.
- “If you are going to talk about Georgia and South Carolina then you should keep an eye on Mississippi too,” Chris Grant, a political science professor at Mercer University in Macon, Georgia, said in a phone interview. “All three states have similar dynamics”
- Clinton would have a ~72% chance of winning Georgia vs Trump’s 28% shot if the presidential election were held today, according to FiveThirtyEight’s constantly changing prediction model; in South Carolina, the former first lady would be competitive, with a 45% likelihood of victory vs 54% for Trump
- In Mississippi, Clinton has a 26% chance of winning that state’s six electoral votes, with Trump at 74%
- While Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi all have relatively large black populations, with Mississippi at about 37%, Georgia is the most likely of the three to go Democrat as its African American residents tend to be more affluent and educated, making them more likely to turn out and vote, according to Grant
- An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll released last week showed 1% of registered black voters backing Trump vs 91% for Clinton; the Democratic nominee enjoys 69% support among all non-white voters compared to 34% for Trump
- Georgia, which last voted Democrat in a presidential election in 1992, has gone from one in four voters being non-white to probably about one in three this year, according to Grant; it also has a sizable progressive movement, fueled in part by a politically active gay community in Atlanta, he said
- “With a little bit of effort and a pretty distasteful Republican candidate for independents, Georgia is in play,” said Grant, putting Trump’s chances of losing the state at about 50%
- Another state with 50/50 odds of “flipping” is Arizona, he said
- Clinton would have a 57% likelihood of winning Arizona, vs 42.8% for Trump, if today were November 8: FiveThirtyEight
- The Clinton campaign is committing more resources to Georgia and Arizona, AP reported, citing unidentified people aware of the plans
- Aides for Clinton yesterday spoke with Democratic Party officials about a six-figure investment across the two states: AP
- The “weirdest” state that may be up for grabs is Utah, Grant says
- A broad dislike for Trump among Mormons has taken Utah out of the GOP “safe zone,” the New York Times reported; Utah hasn’t backed a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
- Bloomberg
